T.P.Sreenivasan-The Blog

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Bringing India’s Dream to
Fruition

Global zero, or a world without nuclear weapons, is not just a
desirable goal; it is an imperative for the survival of mankind. A nuclear war
between nations is unlikely. Most strategists and nations rule out the use of
nuclear weapons as an instrument of war. But the alarming picture of a terrorist
holding a particular country or region, or even the whole world, to ransom by
threatening to use a nuclear weapon looms large on the horizon. Instability
in countries that possess nuclear weapons is a cause of particular concern. Even
the most elaborate command and control systems are not immune to viruses or
hackers. Today’s civilization can be protected and preserved only if nuclear
weapons and other lethal materials are eradicated. Nuclear technology itself
must be defanged sooner rather than later to make it benign enough to serve
mankind. In other words, Global Zero must have no caveats.

Advocates envisage a phased plan for the verified elimination of nuclear
weapons, starting with deep reductions in the Russian and U.S. arsenals, to be
followed by multilateral negotiations among all nuclear powers for an agreement
to eliminate all nuclear weapons. The commitment of the presidents of Russia
and the United States to a nuclear-weapons—free world represents a historic
opportunity.1 This opportunity, however, is not just limited to the superpowers
of the Cold War but is also available to rising powers such as India. The world
has a stake in the success of the initiative, and it is essential that New Delhi play
a role in finding an effective and efficient path to reach that goal. Although
experts and analysts question the very feasibility of such a goal, India not only
believes that ‘‘getting to zero’’ is possible, but it is the only country that has
69
actually put forth a potential disarmament
framework. Even after declaring itself a
nuclear weapons state in 1998, India has
pursued its disarmament agenda aimed at
the elimination of nuclear weapons. India
saw its nuclear arsenal only as a necessary
evil in a world in which every major country
had nuclear weapons or a nuclear guarantee
for its security. The general reduction of
tensions in the world and the U.S.-Indian
nuclear deal, which has made India a
partner rather than a target in nonproliferation and disarmament efforts, augur
well for the Indian dream.

The concept of a nuclear weapons—free world is attributable to India, where it
was articulated with different names by Indian leaders since 1947. The idea of
general and complete disarmament goes beyond a nuclear weapons—free world;
it also seeks a nonviolent world envisaged by the Buddha and embraced
by Mahatma Gandhi, who said:
The only moral which can be legitimately drawn from the supreme tragedy of the
bomb is that it shall not be destroyed by counter-bombs.Violence cannot be destroyed
by counter-violence. Mankind will only emerge out of violence through nonviolence.2
India brought the concept to the international political level in 1988 when Prime
Minister Rajiv Gandhi presented his action plan for a ‘‘world order free of nuclear
weapons and rooted in nonviolence’’ to the UN General Assembly.3 There were
four essential features of the plan: 1) a binding commitment by all nations to
eliminate nuclear weapons in intervals by the year 2010 at the latest; 2)
participation of all states in the process of nuclear disarmament, whether
or not they have nuclear capabilities; 3) demonstration of good faith by all
states by making tangible progress at each stage toward the common goal; and
4) an ideological change in policies and institutions to sustain a world free of
nuclear weapons by undertaking negotiations to establish a comprehensive global
security system under the aegis of the UN. The plan also suggested specific
negotiations and treaties at different stages until the world could not only reach
global zero, but also sustain it without apprehensions. Unfortunately, 2010 is here,
and the goal that India had envisioned to be reached by now is not even close.
But there is hope. In April 2009 in Prague, President Barack Obama declared,
‘‘So today, I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek
the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.’’4 Even though he
acknowledged that the goal would not be reached quickly and perhaps not even
in his lifetime, his words raised new hopes around the world. The trajectory
Obama suggested, however, was not new or unfamiliar. He advocated reducing
It is essential that
New Delhi play a
role in finding an
effective and efficient
path to zero.

The role that nuclear weapons play in national security strategies, renegotiating
the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia, ratifying the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), seeking a new fissile material cut-off
treaty (FMCT), strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and
preventing terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons. To strengthen the basic
bargain of the NPT, Obama stressed that countries with nuclear weapons should
move toward disarmament and countries without nuclear weapons should not try
to acquire them, while all should have access to peaceful nuclear power.

The Mistake: Revitalizing the NPT Bargain

The major disappointment of the Prague speech was that although the ultimate
objective was laudable, the path suggested was the same old NPT track,
which is considered discriminatory by nonnuclear weapons states. Although
discrimination would end with the attainment of the goal, the world in the long
interim period would remain divided, with the haves accumulating more
weapons and the have-nots feeling a sense of diminishing security. The NPT,
ratified in 1970, originally only had a shelf life of 25 years, and the review
mechanism left open the possibility of it evolving with the times. No treaty,
particularly one that bases itself on scientific knowledge and developments, can
be made effective without making the appropriate changes over time. Extending
the treaty indefinitely in 1995, turning it into a perpetual treaty with no
possibility of review, was a sure way of making it a historic relic rather than a
dynamic instrument to determine international behavior.

The ultimate irony is that indefinite extension of the NPT prompted the
Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of 1998, adding two more nations to the list
of nuclear weapons states. The perpetuation of the NPT, and that too as an
unchangeable document for all time to come, removed the last hope that
India had of shaping a new nondiscriminatory regime by consensus. With the
possibility of disarmament by the nuclear weapons states receding further, it had
to blast its way into the nuclear club to secure for itself a place among the haves.
Pakistan followed suit.

The NPT has become an anachronism today as it unfortunately no longer has
any possibility for change. The only alternative is to let it lie and pursue an
alternative system that ensures universal participation and adherence. This is a
great opportunity for India, as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
herself declared in October 2009: ‘‘India we see as a full partner in this effort and
we look forward to working with them as we try to come up with the 21st century
version of the NPT.’’5 Unfortunately, there is no real evidence of such an effort
in any of the road maps in Washington. ‘‘The 21st century version of the NPT’’
must necessarily move away from the presumptions of the 1960s and take into
account the dictates of the present day including the energy crisis, the advent of
nonstate actors, and technological advancement.

The energy crisis and the threat of climate change would inevitably demand
greater use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) was originally conceived as a promotional body, but
as the implementing agency of the NPT, the IAEA became a watchdog against
nonproliferation rather than an engine for energy growth. A new arrangement
with international facilities for enrichment and a fuel bank will support the
energy development of developing countries. Programs for the development of
economical and proliferation-resistant reactors do exist in the agenda of the
IAEA, but they receive little attention. The new system should lead to increases
in the IAEA budget for new technology and technical cooperation. Nonstate
actors will never be amenable to treaties, but there should be greater
accountability on the part of states to safeguard nuclear material. The present
system has no provision to deal with either the nuclear ‘‘Wal-mart’’ of Abdul
Qadeer Khan or the leakage of nuclear material from state sources.

The IAEA suggests that all nuclear
material reported lost has not been
recovered and that some of the recovered
material was never reported lost. The new
nonproliferation system must address these
three key considerations.
The grand bargain of the NPT has
not led the world to security, essentially
because it seeks to perpetuate, rather
than eliminate, nuclear weapons in a
discriminatory manner. By condoning vertical proliferation, it permits the
further sophistication of nuclear weapons by the nuclear weapons states. The
NPT does not impose any restrictions on the designated nuclear weapons states
to control their arsenals. It addresses horizontal proliferation by asking the
nonnuclear weapons states not to cross the nuclear Rubicon, without any
restraint on vertical proliferation. Even the CTBT permits laboratory tests,
which only the technologically advanced states can perform.
No less alarming is the fact that the nuclear powers have deliberately
violated the NPT provisions not to transfer weapons technology to nonnuclear
weapons states. The most celebrated case of such violation is by China, which
shared technology with Pakistan and North Korea. Pakistan and North Korea
have, in turn, helped others such as Iran and Libya with equipment and
technology.

The solemn commitment of the nuclear weapons states, in adherence to
Article VI of the NPT, to pursue negotiations in good faith for general and
India is the only
country that has
actually put forth a
potential disarmament
framework.

Complete disarmament has not materialized as well.6 The projection of the NPT,
therefore, as an end in itself rather than as the first step in a long journey toward
international peace and security has transformed the context and rationale of
the grand bargain. Relying on the NPT bargain as the path for the future
undermines the credibility of the goal of a truly nuclear-free world. A
fundamental change from mutual assured destruction to a collective security
structure, which encompasses nuclear and nonnuclear states, must take place
right now.

Similarly, the CTBT and the projected FMCT will only be partial measures,
even if they come into force in the near future. The U.S. Congress is not yet
ready to ratify the CTBT. Even if it does, the caveat enshrined in the treaty
that a number of designated countries should ratify it before it comes into
force will delay its implementation.7 There is also criticism that it is neither
comprehensive nor is it a ban on testing, as those with the capacity to do
simulation tests can merrily test in laboratories and refine their weapons
many times over. An FMCT is still in its infancy in Geneva, and its growth
and maturity are not guaranteed. The demand that an FMCT should cover
eliminating existing stockpiles may sound its death knell before it even develops.
Both these treaties should be linked to disarmament rather than remain the
pillars of the NPT edifice, which has begun to crumble.

The first requirement of moving toward a nuclear-free world is for its
proponents to recognize the antiquated nature of the NPT. A paradigm shift
from relying on the treaty is a fundamental requirement for the idea of the
elimination of nuclear weapons to be universally accepted. The May 2010 NPT
Review Conference will show that no amount of declarations on the part of the
nuclear weapons states will satisfy the nonnuclear weapons states, nor will it
deter those states from pursuing security by any means necessary, as their sense of
insecurity increases and their disappointment over inadequate resources and
technology to develop peaceful uses of nuclear energy deepens.

The IAEA spends a disproportionately huge sum for its watchdog role, while
paying only lip service to its responsibility to promote nuclear energy. Faced as
they are with the threat of global warming, many countries are knocking at the
IAEA’s door to seek technology to use nuclear power in such crucial sectors
as power generation, medicine, and water.8 Unless the IAEA has sufficient
resources to meet these increasing needs, it cannot play its nonproliferation role
effectively.

The vision of a nuclear-weapons-free world is shared by most countries, but
the way forward is far from clear. It is highly desirable to reach that goal, but its
feasibility is in question because of differing perspectives and priorities. Mutual
suspicion about motives and methods make achieving a nuclear-free world a
distant dream. Mutually reducing nuclear warheads is the only way to go for the
nuclear states. The START process, delayed though it has been, is reassuring, but
it should bring in the other nuclear weapons states as part of the move toward
global zero. Freezing the production of weapons and related materials should add
credibility to reduction proposals.

Finally, concerns over evolving requirements for what countries believe is
necessary for minimum deterrence will have to be tackled as countries’ nuclear
arsenals decline. The number of weapons that each country will insist on
keeping until they are certain about their security will change as their
perceptions of the external threat evolves. Altogether, these obstacles to
achieving a world without nuclear weapons are enormous, but not
insurmountable if a step-by-step approach with measures for verification can
be devised that does not rely on using the outdated NPT framework.

How to Use the U.S.—Indian Partnership to Get to Zero

India, as stated earlier, had believed in and championed general and complete
disarmament, particularly nuclear disarmament. Even with a robust nuclear
program at its disposal, India refrained from developing explosive capability until
1974 and declared itself a nuclear weapons state only in 1998. The indefinite
extension of the NPT in 1995 and the threat of sanctions against the
nonsignatories to the CTBT contributed to India’s decision to go for nuclear
weapons as a minimum deterrent in the 1990s. The CTBT had held out a threat
that appropriate action would be taken at the end of 1999 with regard to those
who did not join the treaty by then.

India’s nuclear doctrine, to the extent it is known to the world, is based on a
minimum deterrent. The development of nuclear weapons by China, which had
invaded India in 1962 ‘‘to teach India a lesson’’ and still had a border dispute,
was a compelling factor in India’s decision to test. It was also well known that
Pakistan had developed a clandestine nuclear capability long before the Indian
tests of 1998. India had to equip itself for its tough neighborhood. India’s no-firstuse
doctrine, its declaration of a moratorium on testing, and its readiness to
engage in negotiations on an FMCTreassured the international community that
India was not embarking on a nuclear arms race. Moreover, India has not
abandoned its various initiatives for nuclear disarmament at the UN, even after
it acquired nuclear weapons, and is committed to eliminating nuclear weapons
together with the other nuclear weapons states.

The U.S.-Indian nuclear deal, whose framework was presented in a joint
statement on July 18, 2005, by President George W. Bush and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh, was testimony to the good faith with which India has sought
to allay the fears of the international community about Indian nuclear weapons.
Due to the deal, India assumed the responsibilities of a signatory of the NPT
without actually signing the treaty by agreeing to: 1) subject its nonmilitary
facilities to IAEA inspections, which included 14 out of its 22 power reactors;
2) sign the Additional Protocol, which will allow for more detailed inspections
by the IAEA; 3) commit to halting further nuclear testing; 4) work to strengthen
the security of its nuclear arsenals; 5) pledge to negotiate an FMCT with the
United States in good faith and to sign it when ready; and 6) ensure that all
equipment for nuclear reactors and fuel imported by other states, including the
United States, will be for peaceful uses only.9 In other words, an India-specific
dispensation was made in light of the new confidence in U.S.—Indian relations
during the Bush administration. Yet, the Obama administration has begun to
hark back to the NPT, the CTBT, and an FMCT, essentially setting the clock
back. India and the United States, however, can work together if they pursue
their shared vision of a nuclear-free world.
Once the commitment of the nuclear
weapons states to complete disarmament is
established, with concomitant changes in
security strategies and related global
postures, the others, such as India, will feel
confident about the intentions of those with
abundant nuclear arsenals. On the other
hand, as long as the nuclear powers continue
to believe that nuclear weapons constitute
the most critical element of their security
strategy, the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons will be elusive. The
international situation is still characterized by lack of trust and political will,
as demonstrated by the total absence of any reference to nonproliferation and
disarmament in the 2005 UN World Summit outcome. The first step, therefore,
is to seek international consensus in the UN General Assembly through its only
multilateral negotiating body, the Conference on Disarmament, which was
established in 1979 as the only multilateral disarmament negotiating forum.
Unilateral declarations, however sincere, and UN Security Council resolutions,
however well intentioned, will be no substitute for such a global consensus. India
will be able to join the United States in the quest for an alternative
nonproliferation system once there is a global consensus on complete
disarmament.

The action plan presented by Gandhi on behalf of India, along with 27
other states, to the Conference on Disarmament in 1988 still remains the most
comprehensive initiative on nuclear disarmament, covering issues from nuclear
testing and fissile materials trade to a time-bound elimination of stockpiles and
eventually of nuclear weapons. Currently, India has five basic priorities in
the global dialogue regarding disarmament and nonproliferation: 1) to have all
The major
disappointment of
Prague was that the
path suggested was the
same old NPT track.nuclear powers reaffirm to completely eliminate their nuclear weapons, either
through a global convention that completely prohibits their use, or threat of
use, or an agreement on their nondiscriminatory and verifiable elimination,
with a specified framework of time; 2) to issue a promise from these states to
reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in their national security doctrines; 3)
to reduce nuclear danger, including the risk of accidental nuclear war,
particularly by de-alerting nuclear weapons to prevent unintentional and
accidental use of nuclear weapons; 4) to negotiate a global agreement among
nuclear weapons states on no-first-use against other nuclear powers and the
nonuse of nuclear weapons against nonnuclear weapons states; and 5) to enable
multilateral disarmament bodies such as the UN’s Disarmament Commission
and the Conference on Disarmament to make effective contributions to the
goal of nuclear disarmament and the elimination of nuclear weapons
worldwide.

Broadly speaking, the two political aims pursued by India are nuclear
disarmament through a process of delegitimization of nuclear weapons and
reducing immediate nuclear danger, including lowering the possibility of terrorist
access to nuclear devices. New Delhi has
supported negotiations on a universal,
nondiscriminatory, and verifiable FMCT.
India has also shown interest in the
Proliferation Security Initiative as well as
in regional fuel banks under appropriate
safeguards. India would like to have international
agreements to ban antisatellite
weapons as well as the deployment of weapons in outer space. As for the
CTBT, however, India is unenthusiastic on account of the history of its
negotiations, which gave the impression that it was targeting India. There are
indications that this could change with time if the United States and others
move toward the elimination of nuclear weapons.

A window of opportunity has presented itself for India and the United States
to shape a common strategy to attain their objectives because of the advent
of the bilateral nuclear deal, which sought to give India the same rights and
obligations as other states possessing advanced nuclear technology, and the
emergence of the idea of delegitimization of nuclear weapons in the United
States itself. The so-called Four Horsemen’s proposal issued by Henry Kissinger,
Sam Nunn, William Perry, and George Schultz in 2008 advocated ‘‘a series of
steps that will pull us back from the nuclear precipice.’’10 The first of these steps
is changing the Cold War posture of deployed weapons to increase warning time
and reduce the danger of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
Obama’s declarations have transformed the scene, not only with his vision of a
A fundamental
change to a collective
security structure
must take place now.nuclear-weapons-free world declared at Prague but also with his emphasis on the
need for the United States to take the lead in reducing the strategic significance
of nuclear weapons.
Less Words, More Action
Any initiative to move toward a nuclear weapons-free world should address the
threat or use of nuclear weapons by any state or nonstate actor. This would entail
a combination of nonproliferation and disarmament because horizontal and
vertical proliferation pose grave challenges to humanity. Simultaneously, it
should promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy without fear of safety or
proliferation. Particular attention should be given to prevent nuclear terrorism,
which has become a high priority. Universality of participation is essential for
decisionmaking, so the existing UN mechanisms should be strengthened.
In this context, the IAEA presents a ready and available forum to assist the
UN General Assembly to shape a consensus. The IAEA needs to restore balance
in its activities with regard to promoting nuclear energy, safety, and safeguards.
Its safeguards inspection mechanism should be streamlined to avoid wasteful
inspections, and its resources should be increased to strengthen technical
cooperation as the demand for nuclear energy increases, particularly in the
context of global warming.
The UN has been engaged in a quest for a nuclear-free world from its very
inception. The very first resolution of the UN General Assembly, adopted on
January 24, 1946, sought the elimination of nuclear weapons and other weapons
of mass destruction.11 Three special sessions on disarmament made significant
contributions to that goal, but a lack of a consensus has prevented the General
Assembly from holding another such session. The extreme urgency for the world
to respond to the new global situation was underlined by Obama in his Prague
speech:
In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the
threat of a nuclear attack has gone up. More nations have acquired these weapons.
Testing has continued. Black market trade in nuclear secrets and nuclear materials
abound. The technology to build a bomb has spread. Terrorists are determined to
buy, build or steal one. Our efforts to contain these dangers are centered on a global
non-proliferation regime, but as more people and nations break the rules, we could
reach the point where the center cannot hold.12
Although the diagnosis is perfect, the treatment envisaged is far too inadequate
to address the emergency. A fundamental change in perspective, amounting to
the delegitimization of nuclear weapons and the abandonment of the outdated
NPT, is required to change the strategic mind-set of the nuclear powers.
The proposed Global Nuclear Security summit in April 2010 presents an
opportunity for a fundamental change in security doctrines, which currently
THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY/ j APRIL 2010 177
Bringing India’s Dream to Fruition
legitimize nuclear weapons. The United
States and Russia have the primary
responsibility to take the lead. The ominous
developments in their relationship, with
Russia hinting at an aggressive nuclear
weapons doctrine, do not augur well for the
quest for a nuclear weapons-free world. Apart
from doctrinal changes, these countries could
support a fourth UN-sponsored special session
on disarmament, propose negotiations on a
nuclear weapons convention, and promote a
broad security guarantee against the use or
threat of use of nuclear weapons against any state.
A nuclear-weapons-free world is far in the distance, but the time has come to
move from pious declarations to concrete action. As a reluctant nuclear weapon
power with a minimum deterrent and an active disarmament agenda, India will
be in the forefront of the movement for a nuclear weapons—free world. It is
already ahead of some of the nuclear weapons states by advocating
delegitimization of nuclear weapons and negotiations on a nuclear weapons
convention. The world can count on India as a partner in nonproliferation and
disarmament, particularly if there is a universal commitment to move toward a
verifiable nuclear weapons—free world.
Notes
1. For a current review of where both countries stand now, see Ariel Cohen, ‘‘A
Nonstarter on Arms Control,’’ New York Times, January 8, 2010, http://www.nytimes.
com/2010/01/09/opinion/09iht-edacohen.html.
2. Smitu Kothari and Zia Mian, eds., Out of the Nuclear Shadow (New Delhi: Lokayan and
Rainbow, 2002), p. 525.
3. Rajiv Gandhi, ‘‘AWorld Free of Nuclear Weapons’’ (speech, UN General Assembly,
New York, June 9, 1988), http://www.indianembassy.org/policy/Disarmament/disarm15.
htm.
4. Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-
In-Prague-As-Delivered/ (hereinafter Obama speech in Prague).
5. Arun Kumar, ‘‘U.S.Wants India as ‘Major Player’ in New NPT Regime: Hillary,’’ Headlines
India, October 22, 2009, http://headlinesindia.mapsofindia.com/india-and-world/
united-states/us-wants-india-as-major-player-in-a-new-npt-regime-hillary-25793.html.
6. See ‘‘Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,’’ July 1968, http://www.un.
org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html.
7. See Jofi Joseph, ‘‘Renew the Drive for CTBT Ratification,’’ The Washington Quarterly
32, no. 2 (April 2009): 79—90.
Abandoning the
outdated NPT is
required to change
the strategic mind-set
of the nuclear
powers.
8. As examples of nonnuclear weapons states seeking nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,
an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report mentions states of the Gulf
Coordination Council while the World Nuclear Association mentions the Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam. IAEA officials believe that about 40 states are seeking to
enter the nuclear energy area. See IAEA, ‘‘20/20 Vision for the Future,’’ February
2008, http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/PDF/20-20vision_220208.pdf and World
Nuclear Association, ‘‘Nuclear Renaissance,’’ September 2009, http://www.world
-nuclear.org/info/inf104.html.
9. See Jayshree Bajoria and Esther Pan, ‘‘The U.S. India Nuclear Deal,’’ Backgrounders,
November 20, 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9663/#p2.
10. George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, ‘‘Toward a
Nuclear-Free World,’’ Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/
public/article_print/SB120036422673589947.html.
11. See UN General Assembly, Resolution 1 (1), January 24, 1946.
12. Obama speech in Prague.
THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY/ j APRIL 2010 179
Bringing India’s Dream to Fruition

Monday, March 08, 2010

A Gandhi in Egypt

March 08, 2010 14:08 IST

A few years ago, when Mohamed ElBaradei faced stiff opposition from
the United States in his quest for a third term as the director
general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, I noted the
physical similarity between him and Mahatma Gandhi [ Images ] (bald
head, thin framed glasses and sharp eyes) and expressed the hope that
he would be as successful in dealing with the US as Mahatma Gandhi was
in confronting the UK.

Today, ElBaradei is emerging as the Gandhi of Egypt [ Images ],
advocating a civil disobedience movement to bring about change after
30 years of "stillness and subservience". His return to Cairo after
acquiring respect domestically and internationally was, in some
respects, like the return of Gandhiji from South Africa [ Images ] to
his motherland. He has kindled hope for change, even if the odds are
heavy.

Hosni Mubarak [ Images ] introduced constitutional reforms in 2007 to
move from referendums to elections to gain legitimacy for his regime,
not to encourage challengers. He stipulated, therefore, that any
candidate for the presidency should be a leader of a registered
political party with experience or secure the approval of 250
parliamentary and local council members to contest as an independent
candidate. The election, scheduled for 2011, it was believed, would
bring back the National Democratic Party to power either with himself
or his son at the helm.

Mubarak has sought to deal with the ElBaradei surprise by coolly
remarking that ElBaradei had the right to take part in the election
independently or as a leader of any of the political parties, "as long
as he meets the constitutional requirements." In other words, he is
certain that change is not around the corner and that he is not about
to preside over the liquidation of his own empire.

I had expected that after his glorious innings at the IAEA, the Nobel
Laureate would move to his chateau in Southern France [ Images ],
enter the celebrities' circuit, become the greatest champion of the
use of nuclear energy for peaceful uses and a trouble-shooter for the
United Nations and play his favourite game of golf in between. When I
expressed surprise that he had plunged into politics in his own
country, he replied, "Getting involved in Egyptian politics was not
planned… It came by default when people saw in me a symbol for change.
I do not know how it is going to play out, but I think it is worth a
try. Egypt and the Arab world need to wake up and smell the coffee and
understand that without democracy, it is a dead end street."

Clearly, his agenda is vast and formidable as he is speaking of
democracy in the entire Arab world. But he also has formidable
credentials. As an international lawyer, he was a distinguished member
of his country's foreign service before joining the IAEA as an
international civil servant. He brought credit not only to himself but
also for his country in the years he spent in Vienna [ Images ]. He
was elected director general against stiff competition at first, but
sailed through in two subsequent elections without even a sign of a
credible opponent.

His administrative abilities, efficiency and impartiality are
legendary. At a time when several UN institutions were accused of
nepotism and corruption, the IAEA and its director general won the
Nobel Prize [ Images ] for Peace, 50 years after it was established to
develop atoms for peace. He weathered many storms, some of them
involving the most powerful nations of the world. His biggest moment
was when he made a strong bid to dissuade the United States from going
to war with Iraq. He agonised over the words he chose to present his
case at the Security Council, but spoke them with clarity and
precision. His position was attributed to his nationality and his
religion, but he stood for truth and justice in a manner many
international civil servants would not have done.

Again, he acted with proverbial impartiality in the case of Iran. He
grilled the Iranians to bring out the facts, reported noncompliance by
Iran on specific aspects of their commitments, but stuck to his
position that he had no evidence to show that Iran had embarked on a
nuclear weapons path. It was only after he left the IAEA that the
agency opened the way for confrontation by suggesting that Iran might
be guilty of a nuclear weapons programme.

His steadfast position even sparked off a rumour that his wife, Aida,
a full-blooded Egyptian, was an Iranian!

The weapons in his armoury to battle for democracy are his credibility
and honesty that made him popular in Egypt itself. His new role as an
apostle of democracy should give his people hope. "There would not be
one saviour for Egypt", he says modestly. The Egyptian people
themselves should save their country, he believes.

So far only the intellectuals and young people have been ignited by
him. His Facebook page has only 55,133 fans at the last count. His
language is diplomatic and his vocabulary is not confrontational. But
there is no doubt that he is ready to take up the leadership, whatever
be the consequences. He is not looking for a sinecure to rest on his
laurels. He has already invited attention to the repressive nature of
the regime in Egypt and the flame that he has lit may well become a
fire. Even if he creates a system that gives a fair chance to those
who follow him, his mission will be fulfilled.

Many nations have honoured those who have done well abroad,
particularly at the United Nations, by making them presidents. I know
at least three -- Kurt Waldheim in Austria, Marti Ahtisaari in Finland
and Danilo Turk in Slovenia -- who were virtually invited to head
their nations. Many others have become foreign ministers. In Egypt
itself, Amre Moussa, who was my contemporary in New York, became the
foreign minister and later the secretary general of the Arab League.
Our own Shashi Tharoor [ Images ] was warmly welcomed back for his
accomplishments at the United Nations.

But ElBaradei is unique as he has come back as a messiah of democracy,
determined to change the system in his country and to bring freedom to
his people. His 'New Front for Change' seeks to reform the
constitution to create a level playing field. "ElBaradei constitutes a
real challenge, not necessarily in his capacity to win an election,
but in terms of his prestige," remarked a professor at the American
University in Cairo. Whether he succeeds in his mission or not,
Mohamed ElBaradei has created history. Freedom-loving people around
the world should wish him well and pray for the Egyptian Gandhi.

One of my golf partners, Sitiveni Rabuka of Fiji, stifled democracy in
Fiji and became the head of state. My other golf partner, Mohamed
ElBaradei, may well usher in democracy in his own country and lead his
people to freedom.

Image: Mohamed ElBaradei at his villa on February 27, 2010, during a
media interaction. Photograph: Asmaa Waguih/Reuters

T P Sreenivasan, a former member of the Indian Foreign Service, was
India's [ Images ] ambassador to the United Nations, Vienna, and
governor for India, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Msgr. Thomas Nedumkallel Memorial Lecture 2010

Indian Foreign Policy—Challenges and Opportunities

Mr. Chairman,

Ladies and gentlemen,

I pay a tribute to the revered memory of Msgr Thomas Nedumkallel, which has brought us together today. From what I have heard and read about him, I know that Msgr. Nedumkallel was a multifaceted genius, who was an outstanding educationist, a gifted orator and a brilliant writer. Nirmala College is a living testimony to his foresight and organizational skills. It is appropriate that we honour his memory with these annual lectures. Truly eminent persons have delivered these lectures in the past and I am honoured and grateful that I have been invited to join that galaxy today.

Two weeks ago, the most powerful President in the world delivered his State of the Union address to the most powerful legislature in the world. He said: “Washington has been telling us to wait for decades, even as the problems have grown worse. Meanwhile, China’s not waiting to revamp its economy. Germany’s not waiting. India’s not waiting. These nations aren’t standing still. These nations aren’t playing for second place……Well I do not accept second-place for the United States of America.”

This was an inspirational address by a beleaguered President, urging his people to struggle to retain the first place in the world for the United States. But among the role models, indeed the rivals, in his perception are China, Germany and India. In the old days, American mothers would tell their children at the dinner table not to waste food, reminding them of the millions of children in India, who would go hungry that night. Today, they are telling them not to waste food, reminding them that they have to compete with the children of India in the school and later in the work place. President Bush reminded his people not long ago about the improved eating habits of the Indians and the Chinese. India must have done something right to change the image of the average Indian, who was once an emasculated astrologer. Today he is a laptop wizard. Ten years ago, no American president would have thought of India as a rival.

We now have the opportunity to compete with the best in the world. India plays a role in every international issue, whether it is terrorism, energy, environment or disarmament. India’s voice is heard, its experience valued and its counsel accepted.

Twenty years ago, India pointed to the growing menace of terrorism and asked the United Nations to develop a strategy to combat it. India began developing nuclear technology for peaceful uses soon after independence as it anticipated the looming energy crisis. Sustainable development was the way of life in India for centuries. The nuclear weapon free world or the “global zero” of today was India’s cherished goal right from the beginning. India has the opportunity to pursue these goals vigorously, now that the world has acknowledged the validity of our position.

As a member of the G 20, India today is on the “Executive Board” of the Globe. We played a role in tackling global economic crisis and maintained its own pace of growth. We are poised to maintain a growth rate around 10 percent per annum. The developed world longingly looks at the prosperous middle class in India as a potential market for them. Three hundred million consumers of luxury goods do not exist in any of their countries.

Independence of judgment and freedom of action, the hallmark of India’s nonaligned policy is still intact. Whether it is a bipolar, unipolar, or multipolar world, we have followed our own lights in determining our position on global issues. In the emerging multipolar world with half a dozen countries determining the future of the globe, India will certainly be a pole.

Indian democracy has stood the test of time and peaceful transition has become commonplace. International observers do not knock on our doors when we hold elections except to marvel at the orderly counting and voting in India.

Amidst these great opportunities on the global scene, India faces many challenges, which demand a dynamic foreign policy. Ours is a tough neighbourhood to cope with. As the largest country in the region, the bully image haunts us everywhere. No amount of unilateral concessions will generate the goodwill that we seek. We cannot resolve the problems of our neighbours. Nor can we insulate ourselves from the fallout of their faults. India as an external enemy seems to provide the bond for their people to stick together.

The SAARC experiment is only partly successful as India is considered a target rather than as a partner by some of our neighbours. They expect unilateral concessions from us without reciprocal commitments. Comparable prosperity and lifestyle are necessary to foster regional cooperation. The European model is a distant dream and ASEAN is much ahead.

Pakistan, born of the same womb as India, remains hostile and recalcitrant, shaping new tools to inflict a thousand cuts on the Indian body politic. Terrorism is an instrument of foreign policy for Pakistan even when it is in the forefront of the war on terror. The threat of internal terrorism in Pakistan is being equated with cross border terrorism they inflict on India. Its existential threat arises from its own contradictions, including the primacy of the armed forces. Pakistan has a vested interest in maintaining hostility towards India because it gives them the possibility to pose as an equal. Much of the world gives attention to Pakistan essentially because of its conflict with India. It, therefore, will perpetuate rather than resolve disputes. Animosity towards India is essential for any Government in Pakistan to survive.

The peace process with Pakistan in the form of the composite dialogue remains suspended because Pakistan has been dragging its feet in bringing the criminals of 26/11 to book. Pakistan cannot have war and peace at the same time. In any event, Pakistan has too many domestic problems to do anything positive in the dialogue. The dialogue will be used by it for posturing and to reduce pressure on it to take action against the murderers of Mumbai. The peace process must await more congenial conditions. Another Mumbai style attack will bring about grave consequences.

China will be the biggest challenge to Indian foreign policy in the next decade and beyond. China claims that its rise is peaceful, but there is no doubt that it has an evil eye on India. Even as the two countries collaborate in the international arena on issues such as trade and environment, China continues to create tension on the border and presses ahead with its encirclement of India. China-Pakistan friendship is clearly directed against India. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal owes its origin to China. China still occupies vast chunks of Indian territory and claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its own. By keeping the border unsettled, China creates instability and poses a constant threat. India does not provoke China in any way and tries to build a pragmatic relationship, but we have to remain vigilant and prepared to meet eventualities. China still harps on its 1962 thesis of teaching India a lesson.

Sri Lanka presents a different challenge. The triumphant Sri Lankan Government, which has eliminated the LTTE leadership, is not inclined to find a political solution to the ethnic conflict in that unhappy island. Massive efforts are necessary to rehabilitate the displaced Tamils. India also has a role to play in persuading the Sri Lankan Government to grant autonomy to the Tamil regions. The growing influence of China and Pakistan in Sri Lanka is also a matter of concern.

The emergence of the Maoists in Nepal presents its own challenges to India. India has a special relationship with Nepal, involving special facilities of trade and transit to that landlocked nation. But Nepal has traditionally tried to be equidistant from India and China.

Myanmar is a challenge in itself because it has virtually become a client state of China. While doing business with the military junta, we have to keep our principled support to the democratic forces.

Bangladesh, Bhutan and Maldives are relatively warm towards India, but management of relations with these countries too needs delicate handling. The emergence of terrorist threat from Bangladesh is of particular concern.

Our relations with the United States are on centre stage. From being estranged democracies for many years, we are now engaged democracies. The nuclear deal removed a major irritant in relations, but the US side still has reservations on its full implementation. India and the US have many areas of cooperation, including defence, space, education, agriculture, science and technology. The powerful and influential Indian American community has been a catalyst for better relations. China is a higher priority for the US on account of the international financial crisis and Pakistan is an ally of long standing and now a partner in the war on terror. These factors inevitably have an impact on the growth of India-US relations. But the progress made in the Bush era will need to be sustained by intense diplomatic efforts. India and the US have many more areas of convergence than divergence.

Russia is often characterized as a “permanent friend” because of the old linkages with the Soviet Union. But many of the areas of past relationship are tapering off. But the greater involvement of Russia in nuclear issues has given a new impulse to these relations. Russia is gradually emerging on the global scene as a challenge to the US and in this context India will have to tread carefully in building its relations with Russia. An India-Russia-China partnership initiative is still in its infancy.

The European Union, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, the Arab world and Africa demand our attention and efforts. China is emerging as a rival in all these regions. Astute diplomacy and major investments are necessary to sustain the tempo of our relations with these regions.

Getting international recognition commensurate with our political and economic strength is a serious challenge. While India is recognized as a major global player and a member of G-20, India’s membership of the Security Council is still a distant dream. India is not a member of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as yet. India’s positions on non-proliferation, disarmament, trade and environmental issues are often cited as militating against India playing its legitimate role on the world stage.

India has the vision of a multipolar world with India as one of the poles with half a dozen other major powers. Greater economic growth, improvement of relations with neighbours and harmonization of positions with the global community will be required to attain this objective. The opportunities are plentiful, but the challenges too are formidable.

Thank you.

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Diplomat Menon can handle security as well

Every time I pass through the sleepy railway station at Ottapalam on
the banks of Kerala’s legendary river, Bharathapuzha, I wonder about
the air and water of that little town, which seems to nourish national
leaders. Nothing seems to change in Ottapalam. The Gulf boom of Kerala
has left it unscathed and it still looks like an overgrown village,
with lush greenery.

But successive Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru to Manmohan
Singh, look for talent there when it comes to crucial national
positions. No government in New Delhi has ever been without the
Ottapalam touch. At one time, K.R. Narayanan, who once represented
Ottapalam in the Lok Sabha, adorned the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

The appointment of Shiv Shankar Menon as the National Security Adviser
(NSA) is the addition of just another “Mallu” to the corridors of
power in New Delhi for the envious power brokers.

“Menongitis” is a disease they have learnt to live with since the time
of V.K. Krishna Menon, V.P. Menon and K.P.S. Menon.

But many have not noticed that Ottapalam has produced two super
spooks, Sankaran Nair and M.K. Narayanan, already and Shiv Shankar
Menon should be able to combine diplomacy with security as the other
two from his hometown have done with distinction in the past.

If Nair and Narayanan could succeed as diplomats, there is no reason
why Menon cannot do justice to his security role.

Institutions rather than personalities should be the focus when
matters of national importance are discussed. Brajesh Mishra, J.N.
Dixit, M.K.Narayanan and Shankar Menon were appointed National
Security Advisers by the respective Prime Ministers, not because they
belonged to one particular service or another, but because they had
competence and integrity to serve in that office.

The hue and cry about the need for a change in the role of the NSA
consequent upon the appointment of Menon, therefore, is wishful
thinking to dilute the institution and to detract from his exceptional
abilities. It is heartening that the Prime Minister has not altered
the NSA’s job description as yet and he is not likely to do so even
after the projected revamp of the anti-terrorism machinery.

Home Minister Chidambaram was wise in not bringing the NSA into the
discussion on the new structure he envisaged to meet the challenge of
terrorism. He made it clear that it was for the Prime Minister to
assign tasks to the NSA to get the best possible advice on national
security matters and that he would not suggest any changes in the role
of the NSA.

This is the right approach to take and nothing should come in the way
of the ability of the NSA to have access to external and internal
intelligence, without which he cannot render the right advice to the
Prime Minister.

What he requires is access rather than control over the intelligence
agencies. It is more useful for the NSA to be a consumer of
intelligence rather than its czar. Having used intelligence in
Islamabad, Beijing and Colombo for effective diplomatic practice,
Menon will not be a babe in the woods when it comes to handling
intelligence.

Even if the Prime Minister takes special interest in foreign policy
and makes use of his NSA to convey the right messages to the world, it
is the Foreign Secretary who has to implement foreign policy and
administer the missions.

Foreign Secretaries played their role even during the Vajpayee-Mishra
era. Having been a Foreign Secretary himself, Menon will be
particularly sensitive to the proper functioning of the Foreign
Secretary. He will not be blamed as Brajesh Mishra was that the latter
had nursed a grievance that he did not become the Foreign Secretary
himself.

Lack of respect for institutions is evident also in speculation that
Menon will make dramatic changes in foreign policy and that he will be
partial towards the countries he served in. Such speculation also
tends to question the logic of our foreign policy, dictated as much by
history as by geopolitics.

Menon was not inattentive to the neighbourhood as Foreign Secretary
and it was not any omission or commission on the part of India that
determined the course of events in our neighbourhood.

Personalities do matter in the making of foreign policy, but to
attribute changes to the Foreign Secretary or the National Security
Adviser is to challenge the decisive role of the political leadership.

The “menon-hunt” that was launched after Sharm el- Sheikh was actually
an attack on the Prime Minister himself, but the attack was on Menon
as he was considered vulnerable. Policy must remain with the political
leadership in any democracy. By appointing Menon as the NSA, the Prime
Minister has taken the responsibility for Sharm el Sheikh. He did not
need a scapegoat.

Menon is neither a hawk nor a dove when it comes to Pakistan and
China. He has won laurels in his assignments by remaining within his
brief and using his enormous diplomatic skills to secure results. His
deep knowledge of China is an asset to the government because he is
not swayed by personal prejudices or preferences.

He will be an ideal adviser to the Prime Minister as he has the unique
ability to present the pros and cons without pushing a particular
point of view. Whether it is diplomacy or security or both, Menon will
be able to do full justice.

The writer is a former Ambassador and member, National Security
Advisory Board, New Delhi

The Tribune February 4, 2010

Sunday, January 24, 2010

A Scintillating Discourse on Gandhi and King

No summary can do justice to the fascinating lecture we heard at the
KIC yesterday by Prof..Michael Warren Sonnleitner, a Fulbright Fellow
from Portland, Oregon on Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King. The
audience was thin as the notice was short and hence this note to give
you a flavour of the talk.

Prof. Sonnenleitner surprised us by saying that King had only a very
low understanding of Gandhi and that there were fundamental
differences between the approaches of King and Gandhi. King had read
only one book on Gandhi and one collection of Gandhi's writings and
listened to two lectures on him. But in answer to a question as to
whether King reached the Gandhian path independently of Gandhi, he
said that King was greatly influenced by Gandhi.

The fundamental difference between the two men was that while Gandhi
believed in the immortality of the soul, King was convinced that a man
had only one life to live and he would be remembered only if if he had
followers. For Gandhi, death was just a transition, but for King, it
was the end. King said that if people did not believe in Jesus, Jesus
would die. Jesus would live on as long as Christians followed him.
Since King knew that death was the end, he could be considered more
courageous than Gandhi. He was fearless, even though he knew he had
only one life to live.

King had the courage not only to face the local authorities, but also
the KKK and even the formidable Hoover, the head of the FBI, who had
secret files on all important people, including Presidents and
Congressmen. When Hoover threatened to reveal his secret life, King
dared him to reveal all after making a confession to his wife about
his indiscretions. He refused to be silent and continued his fight for
justice.

King believed in coerceive non-violence. He often quoted the Sermon on
the Mount to propagate the idea. He fought for social justice and
demanded a guaranteed annual income, not only for African Ameicans,
but also for the poor. He wanted national health care and education
for all, not to speak of ending racism in America. As a democratic
socialist, he was considered a national security threat. Many people,
including Coretta King, believed that the FBI killed him. His
"assassin", who had confessed to his killing as a plea bargain to
escape the gallows, stated later that he had not done it.

King's speeches were often quite inflammable. "I have a dream" speech
was not typical of his style. He condemned the state in the name of
God. He shook American society to the core.

In a telling illustration, Prof. Sonnleitner described how Gandhi and
King would treat the story of Daniel in the lion's den. Gandhi would
believe that Daniel could win over the lion with the power of his
soul. But King would want to cage the lion first and then try to tame
him.

Gandhi encouraged the growth of other leaders and when he went to
jail, he left the movement to the others. But King did not have a
second tier leadership. His closest associates could not stand each
other without King's presence.

The lively discussion following the lecture was equally stimulating.
The Prof concluded by saying that America had not changed despite
King's thoughts and actions. There was nobody of the stature of King
to bring about social change. But he was glad that there were several
"small Kings", still active and effective, trying for change in their
own ways. He did not consider President Obama as one of them. Obama,
he said, was not a true African American. Obama is an African, an
American, an Asian, a white and a black at the same time and the
change he is seeking is not the one that King had sought.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

The text of my presentation on HH's autobigraphy at the
book release by HE Dr. Abdul kalam on Jan 5, 2010

Your Excellency Dr. Abdul Kalam,
Your Highness Sree Uthradom Tirunal Marthanda Varma Maharaja,
Members of the royal family,
Mr. B.R.Shetty,
Mrs. Uma Maheswari,
Mr. K.P.R.Nair,
Distinguished guests,

This is a moment of fulfillment for all of us. For His Highness, this
is a moment of fulfillment of his duty to history, having chronicled
his life and times for posterity; for His Excellency Dr. Abdul Kalam,
an icon of modern India, a moment to pay a tribute to what he calls,
“the oneness of the Maharaja, the State and the temple-forming an
integrated soul”; for Mr. B.R.Shetty, the prominent businessman from
the Gulf, a moment to savour his special links with Kerala and the
Maharaja; for Mrs. Uma Maheswari, the fulfillment of having completed
a labour of love successfully, for Mr. K.P.R.Nair, the eminent
publisher, the fulfillment of his grand vision to create a volume
worthy of its subject, and for me the joy of having been entrusted by
His Highness to welcome you and to introduce his book to you. I am
sure that you too will have a sense of fulfillment at the end of this
event, having been witness to the making of history. May I welcome you
all, on behalf of His Highness and the royal family?

The book being released today, H.H.Uthradom Tirunal Marthanda Varma’s
‘Travancore-the Footprints of Destiny, My Life and Times Under the
Grace of Lord Padmanabha’ as told to Uma Maheswari’, (that is the
title of the book) published by Konark is no ordinary book either in
appearance or in substance. The quality of production, the choice of
paper, the value of the photographs, the quaint charm of the drawings
by young Sharath Sunder and the elegance of styling make the volume
worthy of any coffee table or library. In substance, it is history
written by one of its major actors, the hero and the author combining
to create a masterpiece.

The narrator, the hero, often recedes into the background and gives
pride of place in the narrative to Lord Padmanabha, the deity on whose
behalf the dynasty has ruled Travancore since AD 1750 and to his elder
brother and mentor, Sree Chithira Tirunal Balarama Varma. Many have
faith in Lord Padmanabha, many have adored Sree Chthira Tirunal, but
no one else has felt the divine presence more intensely, no one else
has known Sree Chthira Tirunal more closely. The book, therefore,
presents the most intimate portrait of Sree Chthira Tirunal and the
divine hand that guided him.

The author summarizes the reforms and measures of Sree Chthira Tirunal
in one sentence: “The Temple Entry Proclamation, the abolition of
capital punishment, adult franchise, free and compulsory primary
education, mid –day meals, the establishment of the Travancore
University, procuring food grain to prevent famine, nationalization of
road transport, development of an airport, the establishment of the
Pallivassal hydro-electric project, the victory of the Mullaperiyar
case, the establishment of the Swati Tirunal Music Academy and the
Sree Chitra Art Gallery and rapid industrialization were some of the
reforms, measures and projects.” For a monarch, who assumed power at
the time when the State was “in the grip of an economic depression of
unprecedented severity,” these were no mean achievements. But the
abiding image that emerges of Sree Chithira Tirunal is as “the epitome
of utter gentleness, humility and nobility.”

As personal memoirs of the Elaya Raja and later the inheritor of a
hoary heritage, the book is a model autobiography, as it is devoid of
self-congratulation or glorification. Throughout, there is an effort
to demystify himself in the narration, performing a secondary and
supportive role to the Maharaja, sometimes even as a foil to him.
Instances of his own human weaknesses are narrated to contrast with
the superhuman tolerance and nobility of his elder brother. The way
how, at the age of ten, the Elaya Raja beat up a servant and he was
made to apologise to the servant publicly, how he retaliated to Sir
C.P.Ramaswami Iyer for flinging a file at the Maharaja in the tennis
court and how he confronted an editor, who published unwarranted
allegations against the palace are in contrast to the Maharaja, who
was the paragon of perfection.

The author’s sense of humour is matched only by his compassion with
which he describes everyone around him. For the erudite and learned
person that he is today, his first encounter with his British teacher
was disastrous. “Do you like to study?’ was the first question. “No”
he said emphatically. “How about reading?” “Not at all” he replied
promptly. “Hmm. I hope you like playing?” The answer was an equally
emphatic “Yes” The teacher pulled out a ping-pong ball from his pocket
and said “Come, Let us play” The young prince was delighted. Since
there was no racquet anywhere around, the teacher suggested that they
should use the hard cover of the books that he brought along. After a
delightful game of ping pong in which the prince defeated the teacher,
the teacher said: “Look, if the mere cover of this book is so strong,
imagine what the power and the strength of its contents would be?”
That revelation turned the playful prince into an avid reader. His
love for horses, watches, cameras and cars is described with similar
anecdotes. It is amusing to read that the celebrated dentist, Dr.
G.O.Pal (actually Dr. Gopalan) used to drive from Statue Junction to
East Fort in reverse gear just for the thrill of it. I was reminded of
a story in Moscow that the Egyptians used to order their tanks with
four reverse gears to run away from the Israelis. When they once asked
for a single forward gear, the Soviets were happy that they had
finally decided to fight. But the Egyptian General clarified: “Suppose
they come from behind?”

The pen portraits of the royal family, celebrities and others, drawn
with deep understanding, compassion and affection are an attraction of
the book. Amma Maharani, Regent Maharani, the author’s father, Sri
Ravi Varma Kochu Koil Thampuran, his sister, Karthika Tirunal, Sir
C.P.Ramaswami Iyer, Colonel Goda Varma Raja and others come alive in
the book. It is heartening to read how these great personalities
shaped and reshaped the mind of the author as he assumed different
roles in the family and the State. The most sensitive and tender
portrait is of his own consort, Shrimati Radha Devi, starting from the
moment he saw her arresting face in a wedding album to her demise in
2005. “There were four distinct phases in those years,
namely—attraction, attention, adoration and abandonment”, he writes.
His description of her justifies his cryptic remark: “Radha Devi was
an ideal partner” In a touching farewell, he says, “The grief is
strong, I am unable to come to terms with the reality—that unavoidable
and inescapable part of life.’ The book also contains affectionate
references to the Mahraja’s talented children, nieces, their husbands
and children.

His Highness’ encounters with the celebrities of the world are another
attractive feature of the book. Agatha Chritie, Lord Mountbatten,
Dr.Radhakrishnan, Eleanor Roosevelt, Uday Shankar, Jacqueline Kennedy,
R. Venkataraman, Nizam of Hyderabad, Swami Sivananda, Sringeri
Madadipathi, Bhagawan Satya Sai Baba, Maa Ananda Mayi, Swami
Chinmayananda, the Dalai Lama, JRD Tata and many others find a place
in the book. The most amusing one is the anecdote about Eleanor
Roosevelt. After a visit to Kaudiar Palace, she wrote in the Life
magazine, “I went to Travancore, where I met Chithira Thirunal, the
Maharaja. He introduced me to the Maharani, who was not his wife, but
his mother, and the heir apparent, who was not his son, but his
brother…I have not understood the system. But I am glad that the power
is vested with the women.”

Speaking of the power of women, one must say a word about Uma
Maheswari, the woman behind this book. Like Boswell to Dr. Johnson and
Lytton Strachey to Queen Victoria, Uma has rendered a great service to
His Highness by taking notes diligently and putting them together into
a cohesive, readable and interesting account of a remarkable life and
its times.

Shri KPR Nair, the publisher also deserves a word of appreciation for
creating a volume worthy of its contents.

The book that His Excellency will release today is just not history.
It will make history. The readers of the book, however much they may
believe in democracy and equality of men, will realize that there is
something in what is called “blue blood”, which sets apart the rajas
from the prajas. It is not pomp and grandeur, but humility, dedication
and commitment to the people.

Thank you,

Friday, January 01, 2010

New Year Wishes and Thoughts 2010

Friends,

The end of a year, particularly the end of a decade, is a time for
reflection as well as anticipation. The last year brought much
excitement and much joy to my family, friends and me, but not without
moments of gloom and despondency. Considering that every year is a
blessing, particularly after a certain age, we have much to be
grateful about the year that has just vanished into history.

We had our share of losses of dear and near ones in 2009. The most
painful of them was the unexpected and untimely passing away of Kala
Kaarthikeyan, who had a special place in our lives. The thought that
she and the others, who passed away, will not be there in the New Year
and in the years to come, detracts from the joy of anticipation. May
peace prevail on them.

The biggest event of the year for us was the wedding of Sreekanth,
Mishu, as we call him, to Sharu towards the end of the year on a
lovely beach in Goa. As they celebrate their honeymoon in Alexandria
at the dawn of the New Year, we wish them well. The excitement of
their short courtship, engagement and the splendid wedding dominated
the year. We also welcomed to our family fold Naimish and Gauri
Choksi, Sharu’s marvelous parents, who are ushering in the New Year in
Cambodia. The best thing about the wedding was that the entire family,
except two of Shree’s cousins, came to Goa and Trivandrum to
participate in the festivities. Many of our friends in different
countries came all the way to add luster to our delight. Others
showered felicitations and gifts on us from far and near. Thank you
all for your thoughts and prayers. We should also offer an
unconditional apology to some of you, who did not receive invitations
to the wedding.

The wedding, in a way, was linked to the other excitement of the year,
the election of Shashi Tharoor from Trivandrum. All of us were part of
his campaign and it was when Shree was engaged in door to door
campaign for Shashi, when he met Sharu, who had come to Trivandrum to
cover the campaign for Headlines Today. Shashi characterized their
wedding as an outstanding outcome of his political campaign. The
election results were good for India as it ensured continuity of the
Manmohan Singh Government, which has done much good for the country.
We are disappointed that the promise of Shashi Tharoor as a Minister
has diminished on account of his belief that he needs to communicate
his views directly to the people through a social network even as a
Minister. Hope he will have better luck in the New Year. Modern means
of communications should not undermine established traditions of
government.

I have been taking on additional responsibilities in 2009, making
“retired life” busier than the days in the Foreign Service. The
membership of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), which
entails frequent travel to Delhi and more reading and writing, the
work of the Kerala International Centre (KIC), which has become an
active body of foreign affairs enthusiasts, my weekly programme on
Asianet and endless invitations to speak and write and my
responsibilities in Vayalarji’s Ministry have made life extremely
interesting and hectic. Towards the end of the year, I also assumed
some of the responsibilities that Shashi Tharoor had in the Dubai
based company, AFRAS. I also managed to spend two months as a Visiting
Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, doing some work on
a book on nuclear matters, which should see the light of day next
year. Even under the constant threat of being destroyed by the Kerala
Government, the Trivandrum Golf Club offered the much needed
distraction from work.

Lekha remained focused on her charity work even in the midst of the
wedding excitement and her dancing and painting bouts. She won two
awards during the year for her work with Karuna, which is now a
multinational charity establishment.

The social life in Trivandrum is not too hectic, but we must have
attended a hundred weddings in the year, ranging from simple affairs
to legendary lavish bashes. Government sponsored and other
celebrations and cultural festivals appear endless. The waste of power
on illuminations at the drop of a hat and thoughtless destruction of
trees and plants are distressing, not to speak of the crisis in the
administration on account of squabbles within and outside the ruling
coalition. Kerala deserves a break from all this in the New Year.

I know mailboxes are clogged with messages and no one has the time or
patience to read long New Year messages. On behalf of all the
Sreenivasans, Lekha, Sreenath, Roopa, Sreekanth, Sharu, Durga and
Krishna, let me reciprocate the sentiments in the hundreds of
messages, cards and phone calls we have received for 2010. Hope all
your dreams will come true in the years to come, if not in the New
Year itself. We are grateful for your continued friendship, affection
and consideration, which will illumine our lives in the years to come.

Sincerely,

TPS
January 1, 2010

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

MNV Nair Memorial Lecture 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE

I am grateful to the Trivandrum Public Affairs Forum for doing me the
honour of inviting me to deliver the MNV Nair Memorial Lecture 2009. I
must have delivered half a dozen lectures in different parts of the
country this year in memory of various distinguished men and women who
had made distinct contributions to different institutions and
communities. But I knew none of them in person and I had to go by the
various accounts of their accomplishments. But today we are honouring
someone, who was a living presence amidst us till 2006 and inspired
many of us to contribute to the intellectual and public life of
Trivandrum. When I returned to this city after nearly 40 years abroad
with fancy ideas about my retired life, it was Sri. MNV Nair, who gave
me a sense of realism about the possibilities and limitations of
Kerala. His guidance and support were crucial in the setting up of the
Kerala International Centre, which has now become an important venue
for promotion of foreign policy awareness and analysis. In paying
homage to Sri. MNV Nair, I would like to acknowledge my own personal
indebtedness to him.

My involvement in environmental negotiations, particularly climate
change, is rather ancient, beginning with the Rio summit in 1992 and
ending with the Berlin Conference of Parties (COP) of 1995, where I
was the Vice Chairman of the Conference and spokesperson of the G-77.
It was the Berlin Mandate, which was formulated under the Chairmanship
of the present Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, that later became
the Kyoto Protocol. But I volunteered to speak on climate change today
because the basic issues relating to the subject have remained
unchanged, though we have reached the 15th session of the COP and the
dramatis personae have changed several times. In fact, the battle that
Indira Gandhi waged against environmental colonialism in Stockholm in
1972 still continues. The essential features of the Indian position
and the position of the developing countries are the same today as
they were at the time of Stockholm.

I do not intend to deal with either the science or the economics of
climate change; I shall only touch upon its political and diplomatic
dimensions. As far as the science is concerned, the International
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Nobel Prize winning body of
scientists, headed by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, has established beyond
any reasonable doubt that human activity of various kinds do
contribute to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
leading to global warming. There are still some “deniers” even among
scientists, who believe that either there is no global warming at all
or nature will find its own way of restoring the equilibrium in the
atmosphere. The so-called “climategate” in Copenhagen, the leakage of
some emails purporting to suggest that some scientists in the IPCC
deliberately suppressed some scientific evidence to the effect that
anthropogenic emissions had nothing to do with global warming, did
muddy the atmosphere. Well, there are people who still believe that
the earth is flat and that Darwin’s theory of evolution is sheer
fiction. There is no doubt that it is time that human beings who have,
by their careless and extravagant consumption of the resources of the
earth, caused damage to mother earth, must take corrective action to
reverse the trend in climate change.

As stated earlier, Indira Gandhi had the vision and wisdom to go to
Stockholm in 1972, the only Prime Minister to do so, and to influence
the agenda that the western world was setting to mitigate
environmental problems. The theory being floated in Stockholm was that
the developing countries should desist from using the energy resources
of the earth for their economic development as the developed world
did, but conserve them and preserve the forests and lakes, which have
the capacity to sink greenhouse gases. The developing countries should
also adopt environmentally friendly technologies in their development
efforts. In Stockholm, Indira Gandhi called “poverty the biggest
polluter”, by which she meant that the environmental problems of the
developing countries are simply a reflection of their poverty. The
Stockholm conference finally resulted in an acknowledgement by the
international community of the link between environment and
development and also of the greater responsibility of the
industrialized countries regarding the contamination of the planet.
The “polluters must pay”, said Indira Gandhi, to clean up the mess
that they had created.

The historic Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 refined these concepts
further and formulated several programmes of action to deal with
environment and development in an integrated manner. The UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCC) was one of the two international
conventions, which opened for signature in Rio. This landmark
Convention expressed concern that human activities have been
substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases and that this will result in an additional warming of the
earth’s surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural
ecosystems and humankind. But the basic premise in the Convention was
that “the largest share of historical and current global emissions of
greenhouse gases has originated in developed counties, that per capita
emissions in developing counties are still relatively low and that the
share of global emissions originating in developing countries will
grow to meet their social and development needs.” In other words, the
“luxury emissions” of developed countries should be reduced
substantially, while the “survival emissions” of developing countries
should be allowed to grow in a controlled manner. The principles of
the Convention were particularly significant as the protection of the
climate should be “on the basis of equity and in accordance with their
common, but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities.” Specific commitments for reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions by designated developed countries and for provision of new
and additional resources was included in the Convention and the
developing countries had no such commitments, in view of their need
for economic growth. The vision of international cooperation contained
in the Convention based on the balance between development needs and
environment protection made the Convention universally acceptable. A
new compact between the developed and developing countries raised new
hopes for mankind.

The journey from Rio to Copenhagen through Berlin, Kyoto, Bali and
other cities, however, turned out to be a great disappointment. The
Rio commitments remained unimplemented both in terms of emission cuts,
financing and technology transfer and each COP diluted the basic
principles farther and farther till the Copenhagen COP moved away from
those principles by excluding the whole concept of legally binding
commitments altogether. The Copenhagen COP ended in a discordant note
when it merely “took note” of an Accord produced by the so-called
major economies, the United States, India, China, Brazil and South
Africa. Most developing countries condemned the Accord and even
several developed countries expressed anguish that Copenhagen had
moved away from the Rio and Kyoto commitments. Of course, the words of
the Rio principles are scattered all over the Copenhagen document and
the commitment of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol is reiterated to
satisfy public opinion, but it contains only a pious wish to “to hold
the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take
action to meet this objective.” As for commitment of new and
additional resources, developed countries will provide an amount
“approaching USD 30 billion for the period 2010-2012”. They also
committed to the goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion a year by
2020 as part of the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, subject to
“meaningful mitigation actions and transparency of implementation.”
The Copenhagen Accord is open for acceptance by the member states, but
judging from the intensity of protests from the developing world—some
called it Floppenhagen, some compared it to the holocaust and some
even accused those developing countries which accepted it as having
betrayed humanity for thirty pieces of silver—there will be few
takers. The only hope is that the negotiations will continue for a
year and a more precise agreement with legally binding commitments
will emerge.

India undoubtedly disappointed the developing world by breaking away
from its ranks to bail out the United States and China, the highest
emitters of greenhouse gases. India went to Copenhagen with a negative
mandate—no legally binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, no
monitoring and no burying of Kyoto Protocol. When it came under
pressure to accept new obligations, it found common cause with the
worst polluters in the world, the US and China, who were also under
similar pressure and let down the other developing countries and left
the conference declaring victory, not only for itself, but also for
the so-called BASIC countries. But the victor in the exercise was the
United States which changed the course of the climate change debate to
a new direction. Unlike in Rio and Kyoto, the United States was not
left alone to defy the world. President Obama accomplished his three
objectives of “mitigation, transparency and financing” the way he
wanted. India, China, Brazil and South Africa let the US off the hook.
Perhaps, this is the first time in the history of the UN that India is
part of a consensus in a small group, which is being disowned by a
majority of the developing countries. It is no great consolation that
we are in the company of three other major developing countries. A new
alliance between the “emerging economies” and the US has been forged
at Copenhagen, but its future remains in question as they begin to
grapple with legally binding commitments, which will be absolutely
essential in any action plan for climate. India and China will also
come under pressure at that time as the concept of per capita
emissions seems to have disappeared from the formulations in
Copenhagen.

President Obama’s insistence on transparency in actions by all states
figures in the Accord in the form of emerging economies reporting
every two years to the United Nations, which will be subject to
“international consultation and analysis”, a euphemism for
international monitoring. A US spokesman has already claimed that
China and India have set goals for mitigation and that they will be
challenged if they do not reach those goals. The “common but
differentiated responsibilities” of the individual countries, one of
the principles of Rio, has been forgotten as now all the major
economies have the same common responsibilities. In his speech to the
conference, President Obama, with his characteristic mastery of
juggling with words, changed the much negotiated principle into
“common but differentiated responses”. India would have been far
better off without this accord. Waiting out for another year with all
the options open would have been preferable to closing several doors
in an attempt to declare victory at Copenhagen. Minister Jairam Ramesh
did not carry conviction when he declared that the Copenhagen Accord
was good for India and the world. His approach looked more like the
way he himself described the typical Indian attitude towards the
United States: “Yankees go home, but take me along with you!”
The Indian position outlined by the Prime Minister at his plenary
speech was principled, firm and forward looking. He opposed any
dilution of the Convention signed in Rio, particularly the principle
of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities. “To settle for something that would be seen
as diminished expectations and diminished implementation would be the
wrong message to emerge from this conference”, he said. He went on to
say, “those worst affected by climate change are the least responsible
for it. Whatever emerges from our negotiations must address this
glaring injustice, injustice to countries of Africa, injustice to the
Least Developed Countries, and injustice to the Small Developing
States, whose survival as viable states is in jeopardy.”
Unfortunately, the very countries that the Prime Minister mentioned
felt betrayed by the Copenhagen accord. The transparent and inclusive
process that India had promised also did not materialize in
Copenhagen.

The Copenhagen Accord can be defended only on the ground that it
prevented a complete breakdown of the negotiations and pointed a
realistic way in which the worst emitters could be brought into
certain broad commitments even if they are not legally binding or
verifiable. Instead of being a “deal breaker”, as India was rumoured
to be before the conference, it has become a “deal maker”. The
commitment to limit the rise in temperature to 2 degrees, with the
possibility of even considering bringing it down to 1.5 degrees holds
out some hope for mankind. The Accord retains much of the language of
the past to show that the way forward is not a complete break from the
past. The concept of a Fund to finance mitigation of and adaptation to
climate change has taken some concrete shape. The United States is now
a partner rather than a target in the global effort to safeguard the
environment. Cooperation rather than confrontation is the way to go
and these are the days of multiple alliances rather than nonalignment.
These accomplishments must, however, be weighed against the price
India will have to pay for breaking away from the mainstream movement
of developing countries, the charge that the US and other developed
countries have been let off without binding commitments and the
concession India has made by accepting some form of international
monitoring of its voluntary commitments. India has taken a calculated
risk by accepting what was essentially a US-China deal, which was
worked out between them over a year and presented by President Obama
as a way to save the Copenhagen conference from total failure. Only
time will tell whether Copenhagen will lead to a meaningful and
legally binding agreement to halt and reverse climate change.
The Copenhagen conference was remarkable for the demonstration of the
grave anxiety of the world about the deterioration of the environment.
The people are far ahead of their Governments on this issue and even
the most powerful and dictatorial Governments cannot stop the tide of
public opinion and I would like to conclude on that optimistic note.

Friday, December 04, 2009

A diplomat and a politician

T P Sreenivasan remembers Ambassador SK Singh, a dominant figure in
the Indian Foreign Service and the governor of Rajasthan [ Images ]
and Arunachal Pradesh, who passed away on December 1.

Ambassador SK Singh was short in stature and had a squeaky voice, but
he stood tall and made his voice heard as a diplomat and as a
politician. As a diplomat, he was known for being politically savvy
and always at home among politicians of all hues. After he left the
Indian Foreign Service and dabbled in politics, he deployed his
diplomatic prowess to be a successful governor in Arunachal Pradesh
and Rajasthan. He had his ups and downs, but he remained calm and
confident in adversity.

Ambassador Singh was a dominant figure in the IFS during much of my
career, though I worked directly under him only when he was foreign
secretary and I was joint secretary (UN). He was already a legendary
official spokesman when I reached South Block. Though he operated from
the Shastri Bhavan, he was visible everywhere and was recognised as a
guide and a guardian by the New Delhi [ Images ] press corps. He was
clearly a role model for us at that time even though we knew very
little of his work.

I saw him in action first when he was additional secretary (UN and AD)
and I was special assistant to Foreign Secretary Jagat Mehta. He was
quite a popular figure not only because he held charge of two very
important divisions in the ministry, but also because he was close to
the powers that be. Everybody seemed to be friendly with him, but
nobody seemed to know what his next move would be. He was loyal to
Jagat Mehta and served him well at a difficult time when Mehta was
eased out of the ministry. When efforts were made by some to change my
posting to New York after Mehta moved out, he gave me solid support
and made sure that I went to New York. He was gracious and generous
whenever I travelled with him to Latin America and other places from
New York.

His outstanding work in Vienna [ Images ] was well remembered when I
reached there, though he had acquired the reputation of a manipulator
in the UN system. His earlier experience in New York in the Fifth
Committee and the powerful Advisory Committee on Administrative and
Budgetary Questions came in handy for him to use the UN system to
plant his favourites there and to get close to the high UN officials.
He got the Vienna residence and chancery renovated and refurbished.
Though the residence was maintained well by his successors, the office
was allowed to deteriorate and it took me my full term to make it
worthy of the Indian mission. He was a legend in many ways in Vienna.

SK Singh was a bit restless in Vienna as he was away from the scene of
action, where he always wanted to be, and his appointment to Islamabad
[ Images ] was a bonanza for him. He made such a mark in Islamabad
that it was rumoured that Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi [ Images ] would
appoint him foreign secretary by superseding colleagues like AP
Venkateswaran and KPS Menon. But his elevation came only later, at the
fag end of Rajiv Gandhi's tenure as prime minister.

As foreign secretary, he gave me full support during the political
crisis in Fiji. But it was obvious that he approached every issue from
the perspective of the Congress party winning the elections. When the
military government in Fiji ordered me out since India [ Images ] had
not recognised it, he was in panic because he thought that the event
would affect Rajiv Gandhi's election prospects. I told him that the
Fiji policy should be projected as a success, but he was not too sure
of it and his instinct was to hush up my expulsion.

Life as foreign secretary became difficult for him when VP Singh
became PM and IK Gujral became foreign minister. I had seen how much
he used to needle Gujral when he was ambassador in Moscow [ Images ]
and Singh was dealing with administration in the ministry. Gujral was
not comfortable with Singh and prematurely replaced him with Muchkund
Dubey. Singh was told that he would be appointed governor, but nothing
was done till the Congress came back to power. With all his talent and
experience, he continued as governor till his very end.

SK Singh remained a bachelor till he became an ambassador and had
small children when he was foreign secretary. But he was obviously a
loving husband and a fond father.

Singh was in many hot spots during his career for no fault of his, but
the joke at that time was that any country would go up in flames if he
went there. When he was appointed foreign secretary, someone wrote
that everything was ripe for a revolution in India and it would
explode the moment Singh arrived on the scene!

SK Singh had many qualities of head and heart and his was a successful
life both as a diplomat and as governor. He had his detractors, who
thought that he was a master manipulator, but he will be remembered
with admiration and affection by his friends and colleagues.

T P Sreenivasan

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Dr Singh's cotton candy visit

By T.P.Sreenivasan

Indian foreign policy', they used to say in the late 'sixties, 'is 80
percent protocol, 10 percent alcohol and 10 percent Tikky Kaul'.
Today, Tikky Kaul has become a distant memory and the percentage of
protocol is certainly less, even if alcohol may be more.

A good percentage of Indian foreign policy today is cold calculation
to cope with the challenges all around. But Washington is still under
the impression that Indians can be won over by flattering protocol and
friendly hyperbole. Those who gloat over the Indian prime minister
being accorded the singular honour of being the first state guest of
the Obama [ Images ] administration should look at the other visitors
who were given no such honour, but went away with goodies in the bag.
Those close to the White House like the prime ministers of Israel and
the UK walk in and out without so much as a gun salute, while the
Indian prime minister gets pomp and splendour and plenty of good
words. Whether this is symbolism or form without substance, only time
will tell.

Dr Manmohan Singh [ Images ] himself set off the flow of sweet words
by asserting that the setbacks to the US economy were temporary and by
expressing confidence that the US would remain a preeminent economic
power. But he went beyond expressions of faith and optimism and spelt
out his agenda in no uncertain terms. He told Fareed Zakaria [ Images
] that India's [ Images ] ultimate goal was to join the NPT as a
nuclear weapons state and expressed the hope that it would happen
eventually.

In the past, this was implied rather than spelt out in such concrete
terms. In fact, the nuclear deal is seen as an alternative to the
outright declaration of India as a nuclear weapons state. On China
too, Dr Singh was frank and forthright, pointing to the inscrutability
of the Chinese attitude to India. He virtually served notice on
President Obama that he should not take the Chinese at face value.

On Af-Pak strategy, he provided valuable inputs into policy making by
underlining the importance of defeating the Taliban [ Images ] and the
need for the United States to stay in the region till the mission is
accomplished. He did not hesitate to spell out the Indian position on
climate change, however unpalatable it might have been for the Western
negotiators.

As against the clear Indian agenda for the visit, President Obama
seems to have launched a charm offensive, full of admiration for India
and its prime minister and promises of action in the future. Except
for the presence of an uninvited socialite couple at the banquet, the
protocol was perfect and the menu was exquisite. But the visit did not
move the relations further in any of the areas of special interest for
India. It has merely raised expectations.

The Indian and the US delegations, we now know, burnt the proverbial
midnight oil to conclude an agreement on setting up of an enrichment
facility, as agreed upon in the deal. There is optimism that only one
more sitting is required to dot the 'i's and cross the 't's in the
agreement. But the agreement on the setting up of a separate facility
under IAEA safeguards was a done deal under the 123 agreement, by
which permission was already given for reprocessing. The Obama
administration will be merely implementing the deal by drawing up the
procedures and modalities. Much more needs to be done in the US and in
India for the nuclear trade to flow and there is much hesitation among
the new czars in the State Department to contribute to India's nuclear
capability. They would rather let the rest of the world meet Indian
requirements than take the responsibility for Indian capabilities.

The Obama administration is still taking the NPT, CTBT and FMCT route
with regard to India. The deal, for them, is a temporary measure till
the edifice of nuclear non-proliferation is built on time-tested
pillars. To deal only with the participation of American private
companies in nuclear trade is to evade the real issues.

Perhaps, Dr Manmohan Singh's expectation that India would eventually
be admitted to the NPT as a nuclear weapons state has arisen from
Hillary Clinton's [ Images ] suggestion that the US should work with
India to develop a 21st century version of the NPT. But the White
House has shown no enthusiasm for the idea and her statement is being
seen as evidence of the fissures developing between her and the
president on some foreign policy issues.

The prime minister may have noticed that the US is seeking new
concessions from India such as a moratorium on fissile material
production and signature on the CTBT as new measures over and above
the provisions of the nuclear deal. The question being asked is not
what more will be done for India in the nuclear field, but what India
would do to support the US agenda on non-proliferation.

Clearly, discretion demands that we do not ask for anything new in
this area and operate the NSG exemption to our advantage. Nothing is
farther from the minds of the nonproliferationists in the US than the
recognition of India as a nuclear weapons state. That proposal should
await a more propitious moment.

The Indian visit took place as President Obama was finalising his new
Af-Pak policy, which came to light within a week after the prime
minister left Washington. There is hardly any evidence that the advice
of the prime minister made any difference to the surge cum exit policy
outlined by the President on December 2, 2009. In what may well be the
first time in history, the prime minister virtually endorsed an
occupation force in Afghanistan. He stressed the importance of the US
staying the course in Afghanistan and defeating the terrorist outfits
there. No joint efforts were discussed or approved in Washington and
the leaders merely agreed 'to enhance their respective efforts' in
Afghanistan.

President Obama did 'consult' the prime minister on phone before
announcing his new policy, but it appeared to be in the context of
India's possible assistance to training the Afghan forces. While
President Obama stressed his continuing interest in Pakistan even
beyond the war, he made no mention of the terrorist threat to India
even obliquely on account of Pakistan's sensitivities.

Dr Manmohan Singh was uncharacteristically blunt on China in public in
Washington and he may have been even more direct in his private
conversation with President Obama. But, as an economist, the prime
minister may well have understood the logic of the US policy towards
China at this critical moment in the global economic crisis. He must
have, however, stressed the inadvisability of assigning any special
responsibility to China in resolving the problems in South Asia. But
beyond assuring India of no external intervention in India-Pakistan
matters, President Obama could not have given any cause of comfort for
India in the context of China.

Nobody had expected any movement in India's quest for permanent
membership of the UN Security Council during the visit. But the
formulation in the joint statement on this issue is even weaker than
before. In the statement, President Obama merely 'looks forward to a
stable and prosperous India playing an increasingly important role in
world affairs' without any reference to UN reform.

On the vital issue of climate change, there was a comprehensive
understanding in Washington, which reflects the Indian position
accurately. Neither side conceded anything new in this context, but
the balanced text indicates the way Copenhagen conference will go in
finding a political compromise without specific agreements for
concrete action. The subsequent India-China-Brazil-South Africa
position has reinforced the perspective of developing countries on the
issues in Copenhagen and the battle lines have been drawn. The
Washington statement has only helped to identify the issues.

If the objective of the visit was to demonstrate the continuity in
bilateral relations beyond the Bush era, that has been attained by the
assertion of India's indispensability by President Obama, recalling
President Clinton's statements in 2000. But beyond that, the US
appeared to be looking for Indian concessions for favours received,
not to go the extra mile to meet Indian aspirations.

Those who have eaten cotton candy can understand the feeling in India
a week after the visit. The colourful and huge cotton candy is
attractive and mouth-watering. It melts in the mouth and satisfies the
sense of taste and smell. But it finishes too soon and leaves the
consumer no more satisfied than before. A certain sticky mess remains
around the mouth and a sense of emptiness persists. If left exposed
for a time to the atmosphere, it becomes less fluffy and coarse and
eventually disappears.

The visit was pleasing in every respect and full of symbolism, but
there is no guarantee that the promises will be fulfilled. The Obama
administration itself has been high on promises and low in
implementation so far and the Indian case may be no exception
.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Shree-Sharu Wedding-- November 22, 2009
The setting sun beyond the wide sea behind a flower decked podium on the beach cast a golden light over Sharu and Shree as they tied the knot, with a select audience of relatives and friends, who had gathered from different parts of the globe. Two days of feasting, dancing and merrymaking came to an end in Goa on November 22, 2009, leaving everyone nostalgic about a wedding to remember.
In a toast to the newly married couple, Minister Vayalar Ravi recalled how he had seen Shree grow up from infancy, together with his own three children. Minister of State for External Affairs, Shashi Tharoor, who had inadvertently brought the couple together, Shree as a campaigner and Sharu as a TV reporter, sent a message of greetings. The message, which was read out at the dinner by Shree’s brother, Sree, told much of the story of the meeting and romance of the young couple
"I am delighted that the elections of 2009 delivered at least one enduring result -- the marriage we are all celebrating this weekend. Politics, it is said, makes strange bedfellows, but it is a relief to say that it can make a suitable boy and girl come together as well. There is nothing strange about a smart young colleague and a bright and curious journalist finding each other amidst the hurly-burly of an election campaign -- they must have seen in each other a blissful escape from the maddening pressures and tensions of political competition that surrounded us all. Either that, or my campaign failed to capture their interest sufficiently to keep them away from each other!
"I am sorry I cannot be with Shree and Sharavati to raise a glass in celebration of their nuptials or to join in the good cheer that you must all be experiencing. But I am well represented by my mother and sister, and by the man who brought them together, Jacob Joseph, who is now my Officer on Special Duty. After all, what duty can be more special than the duty of connecting two hearts and souls? Whatever else Jacob does for me or my constituency cannot match this singular accomplishment.
"My best wishes to Shree and Sharavati for a joyous married life together. And one piece of advice -- stay away from politics after this. One life-changing campaign is enough for a lifetime!"
Among the other guests were Princess Aswathy Thirunal, Prince Rama Varma and his spouse, Girija and Prince Marthanda Varma, who is married to Shree’s cousin, Gopika, all from the Travancore royal family.
The wedding was an event to remember, for the couple, their parents and for the near and dear ones who came all the way to the golden beaches of Goa to participate in the festivities and to bless them.
The Goa event was hosted by Sharu’s parents, Gauri and Naimish Choksi. Shree’s parents, Lekha and T.P.Sreenivasan , will host a reception in Trivandrum to celebrate the wedding.