By
T.P.Sreenivasan
India
never had it so good. Even in the nostalgic days of the cold war, nonalignment
did not give India the kind of space that it has in the world today. The
mightiest nations of the world are lined up to seek strategic partnership with
India. Offers range from hard cash to technology, from trade in consumer goods
to supply and co-production of sophisticated weapons. Old and seemingly
intractable problems have given way to identification of mutuality, political,
economic and cultural. Tantalizing offers are being made of membership of
groupings, which appeared out of bounds for India till very recently.
The
United States, China, Japan and Australia have unveiled offers, considered
unthinkable even a year ago. Pentagon has overtaken Foggy Bottom with offers of
co-production and co-development of weapons. China, which had so far built
roads only on its side of the border with India to reassert its claims on Arunachal
Pradesh and Aksai Chin, is ready to make massive investments in Indian
infrastructure. Japan’s constitutional bar on arms exports and its acute
allergy for everything nuclear are receding to the background and specific
agreements in these areas are on the anvil. Australia, which had confronted
India on nuclear matters and the Indian Ocean, has unabashedly come calling
with a nuclear deal to open uranium trade with India, acknowledging India’s
impeccable record in non-proliferation.
The
reasons for the change of heart towards India across the board are diverse and
even contradictory. The emergence of a single party Government with a decisive
leader is one reason attributed to the change. But most countries had seen the
same leader as a Hindu nationalist with a dark past. Everyone knows that his
party won only less than 40% of the votes. In these circumstances, it is
difficult to imagine that the advent of Narendra Modi has caused the change.
His lack of experience in foreign policy could even have been a disincentive.
Another
reason being cited is the growing strength of India. The stabilization of the
rupee and the faster pace of liberalization may have attracted attention, but
even when India was registering a two-digit growth, it did not enjoy the kind
of confidence and concessions it now gets. The promise of growth, further
liberalization, an investment friendly environment, (“red carpet, not red
tape”) less government and more governance and reduction of corruption may well
be the factors that have attracted the world towards India. The sustainability
of the change will depend on whether the promises can be kept.
More
than anything else, the evolving international situation and India’s unique
geography and history, which have led to the new dazzle of India. With the US,
the nuclear deal was transactional with clear expectations on both sides.
President Barack Obama came to India in 2010 to reap the harvest of the deal in
terms of nuclear and arms contracts at a time when creation of jobs was a life
and death issue for his second term. His disillusionment caused by the nuclear
liability law and the Indian rejection of F-18 fighter aircraft soured ties.
The arrest of an Indian diplomat and retaliation by India marked a new low.
None of these is a hindrance today and the US is gearing up for a visit by
Narendra Modi, the success of which is a foregone conclusion. The geopolitics
of the Indo-Pacific have expanded India’s magnetic field. Even if nuclear trade
does not take place, the US will find compensation in arms trade with India.
India’s friendliness itself is at a premium in the US today.
In
2005, faced by the new warmth in India-US relations, China was ready to move
ever so slowly to befriend India, but its momentum was lost as India plunged
into major scams and withdrew into its own shell. Today, China is signaling
readiness to make significant investment and to forge a partnership, regardless
of the complex border issue and other irritants. India is equally anxious to
enhance Chinese investment and trade, as long as the border remains tranquil
and China scales down its encirclement of India. The visit of President Xi
Jinping is expected to be a game changer. He has postponed a visit to Pakistan,
which was planned to take place before his arrival in India.
Unprecedented
bonhomie marked the Modi-Abe summit in Japan. India will receive public and
private funding to the tune of USD 35 billion will be available to India in 5
years, a special strategic partnership was forged, which includes defence
exchanges, clean energy, cultural linkages and bullet trains. The crucial
nuclear agreement could not be signed and transfer of aircraft did not
materialize, but the will was there to accomplish these in a short span of
time. Modi’s critical reference to expansionist tendencies in the region
gladdened the Japanese, though it was clarified later that he did not mean
China. China, which had severely criticized India-Japan links on the occasion
of another Indian visit, merely hinted at Japanese perfidy. Moreover, China
indicated that the Chinese development package to India would be three times
larger than that of Japan.
In
ancient times, eligible young women in India could publicly choose a husband
from many suitors, who lined up with their wealth on display. India appears to
be in the same happy situation, except that choosing just one among the
contenders could be catastrophic. The challenge before India is to keep
everyone hopeful and to derive benefits from each.
Prime
Minister Narendra Modi, though a novice in international diplomacy, has proved
his ability to juggle around with several options with the agility of an Indian
magician. His style is not to postpone decisions, but to take them at the right
time and correct mistakes equally decisively. He postponed talks with Pakistan
the moment the latter appeared to take liberties, he voted with Palestine when
he realized that his bid to balance Israel and Palestine did not play well in
India and he responded positively to the US overtures even after refusing to
join the global agreement on WTO. He has proved his mettle in diplomacy in his
first hundred days in office. His stress on continuity with innovation,
decisiveness and sensitivity keeps India dazzling in the eyes of the world, at
least for the present.
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