Looking for a lady from Eastern Europe
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The Hindu
TELLTALE SIGNS: “If a senior official of the Secretariat or a senior
diplomat begins taking French lessons in New York, it is presumed that
he or she aspires to be a candidate for the post of Secretary-General.”
Picture shows Mr. Ban Ki-moon in New Delhi in January 2015. Photo: S.
Subramanium
Ban Ki-moon has nearly two more years to go, but the race for his successor as U.N. Secretary-General has already begun in world capitals as well as in New York
If you are a lady in your late fifties or early sixties, a national of
one of the small states in Eastern Europe, with considerable experience
of working in the U.N. system either as a diplomat or as a senior member
of the Secretariat, with no strong views against the well known U.N.
consensus positions on fundamental issues, and also speak French, you
have a high level job waiting for you. Starting from January 2017, the
job will be based out of an office on the 38th floor of the U.N.
building in New York and a town house in Manhattan.
But the imponderables are many. The job description is extremely vague
and cursory. So are the prescribed qualifications of the
Secretary-General of the United Nations, who has to be the Chief
Executive, negotiator, mediator and the conscience of mankind. In fact,
anyone who is acceptable to the majority of the members of the Security
Council, including the permanent members, can be chosen in a private
meeting. The person has to win two-thirds majority of the General
Assembly later, but so far, no recommended candidate has failed to
fulfil that requirement. But still, the next Secretary-General of the
U.N. should have the attributes mentioned because of the history of the
position, convention, practice and expectation.
Factors that matter
First and foremost, no woman has ever been elected Secretary-General so far and, in these days of gender balance and empowerment of women, the U.N. cannot overlook this fact. Equally sacrosanct is geographical rotation, which is at the centre of selection of personnel at all levels. Competence is often sacrificed at the altar of regional distribution. The fact that nearly half the staff of the U.N. are selected on the basis of geographical representation and not merit was acknowledged by Boutros Boutros-Ghali, when he said, “about fifty percent”, when he was asked as to how many people worked at the U.N. Among the five regional groups, one of which every member state belongs to, only the East European Group has not had a chance to provide the Secretary-General so far, while Asia (Myanmar and South Korea) West Europe (Norway, Sweden and Austria) and Africa (Egypt and Ghana) have provided more than one and Latin America (Peru) has provided one. The East European Group has undergone major changes after the end of the Cold War and it will be difficult to deny it the chance to nominate a Secretary-General this time.
First and foremost, no woman has ever been elected Secretary-General so far and, in these days of gender balance and empowerment of women, the U.N. cannot overlook this fact. Equally sacrosanct is geographical rotation, which is at the centre of selection of personnel at all levels. Competence is often sacrificed at the altar of regional distribution. The fact that nearly half the staff of the U.N. are selected on the basis of geographical representation and not merit was acknowledged by Boutros Boutros-Ghali, when he said, “about fifty percent”, when he was asked as to how many people worked at the U.N. Among the five regional groups, one of which every member state belongs to, only the East European Group has not had a chance to provide the Secretary-General so far, while Asia (Myanmar and South Korea) West Europe (Norway, Sweden and Austria) and Africa (Egypt and Ghana) have provided more than one and Latin America (Peru) has provided one. The East European Group has undergone major changes after the end of the Cold War and it will be difficult to deny it the chance to nominate a Secretary-General this time.
“That no woman has been elected U.N. Secretary General cannot be
overlooked in these days of gender balance and women’s empowerment”
The leading state in the East European Group, Russia, does not qualify
as permanent members are excluded from consideration, as there will be
too much concentration of power in a permanent member, if it also
nominates the Secretary-General. This argument was used against India as
India was a candidate for permanent membership. Even while opposing
India’s permanent membership, the argument was used to deny support to
an Indian candidate. But some of the former Republics of the Soviet
Union like the Baltic States or some states, which were part of
Yugoslavia may be able to offer candidates that fit the bill.
Age is no bar, but in the traditional world of diplomacy, in which age
and experience are respected and the youth are seen as upstarts, persons
with no more than 10 working years to go have an advantage. The
experience can either be in the missions at the Ambassadorial level or
in the Secretariat or both. Kofi Annan was the only Secretary-General
who came from the Secretariat and some of his faults were attributed to
his having been a part of the U.N. Secretariat for long. Foreign
Ministers and above look attractive, but former Presidents or Prime
Ministers have never made it. Overqualification is as deadly as under
qualification.
Holding strong views on any subject is not an asset to the aspirants.
Inane and colourless commitment to the consensus positions of the world
body should help. The smaller the country, the more committed it will be
to non-proliferation, human rights and the environment as it does not
have to give up anything in espousing the consensus within the U.N. A
representative of a country like India, which has its own angularities
on these issues has little chance of leading the U.N., unless he disowns
his national positions. No wonder, then, that the Indian candidate last
time had never represented India at the U.N. Mr. Ghali was denied a
second term basically because he brought his own perspectives to the
job. Initially, it was thought that his Coptic Christianity and Jewish
wife distanced him from the country of which he was Foreign Minister. In
the case of Kofi Annan, his European wife may have been a helpful
factor.
The permanent members
The permanent members have repeatedly made it clear that they will not accept any procedure to elect the Secretary-General that would detract from their own role in choosing the next Secretary-General. There have been suggestions that a search committee should be constituted with Kofi Annan at its head, with representatives of the permanent members as members. Nothing would be more objectionable to the permanent five. They demand absolute loyalty of the Secretary-General and will not be party to any arrangement which brings in other king makers. For this reason, the aspirants should be totally acceptable to all the five of them. It is the U.S. which identifies a potential candidate and sells him or her to the rest of the permanent members and then to the rest of the Security Council. The best chance is for someone who is willing to abide by the wishes of the permanent five without questioning as in the case of the previous incumbents except Dag Hammarskjöld and Boutros Ghali. The first was killed in a mysterious aircraft accident and Ghali was denied the customary second term. A “head waiter image” is the most suitable. Brilliant ideas or thinking out of the box are not assets for them. Like it happened in the case of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, after several rounds of voting, an exhausted Security Council picked the one candidate who had nothing negative against him even if he had nothing positive either. Pérez de Cuéllar was fishing in Peru when he was elected unanimously.
The permanent members have repeatedly made it clear that they will not accept any procedure to elect the Secretary-General that would detract from their own role in choosing the next Secretary-General. There have been suggestions that a search committee should be constituted with Kofi Annan at its head, with representatives of the permanent members as members. Nothing would be more objectionable to the permanent five. They demand absolute loyalty of the Secretary-General and will not be party to any arrangement which brings in other king makers. For this reason, the aspirants should be totally acceptable to all the five of them. It is the U.S. which identifies a potential candidate and sells him or her to the rest of the permanent members and then to the rest of the Security Council. The best chance is for someone who is willing to abide by the wishes of the permanent five without questioning as in the case of the previous incumbents except Dag Hammarskjöld and Boutros Ghali. The first was killed in a mysterious aircraft accident and Ghali was denied the customary second term. A “head waiter image” is the most suitable. Brilliant ideas or thinking out of the box are not assets for them. Like it happened in the case of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, after several rounds of voting, an exhausted Security Council picked the one candidate who had nothing negative against him even if he had nothing positive either. Pérez de Cuéllar was fishing in Peru when he was elected unanimously.
With the sartorial elegance associated with diplomats, the aspirant has
to be smartly turned out and well groomed. This is particularly
important if a lady becomes the next U.N. Secretary-General.
The run-up
If a senior official of the Secretariat or a senior diplomat begins taking French lessons in New York, it is presumed that he or she aspires to be a candidate for the post of Secretary-General. France absolutely insists that it will veto any candidate who does not speak French. But mercifully, no desirable level has been clearly established and the French vote is often determined by other factors. Ban Ki-moon’s French is not particularly strong, but the French had other reasons to support him. But the French trump card is a nightmare for aspirants. If China and Russia too had imposed such conditions, the language courses at the U.N. would be heavily subscribed.
If a senior official of the Secretariat or a senior diplomat begins taking French lessons in New York, it is presumed that he or she aspires to be a candidate for the post of Secretary-General. France absolutely insists that it will veto any candidate who does not speak French. But mercifully, no desirable level has been clearly established and the French vote is often determined by other factors. Ban Ki-moon’s French is not particularly strong, but the French had other reasons to support him. But the French trump card is a nightmare for aspirants. If China and Russia too had imposed such conditions, the language courses at the U.N. would be heavily subscribed.
Ban Ki-moon has nearly two more years to go, but the race for his
successor has already begun in the world capitals as well as in New
York. Since there is no established procedure, whispers in the
delegates’ lounge and conference corridors lead to speculation,
emergence of candidates, controversies, convergence of opinions and even
consensus. One agreement that has been reached so far is that the next
Secretary-General shall be appointed as early as possible, preferably
not later than one month before the term of the incumbent expires. The
decision in November 2016 may be a surprise, but it will be no surprise
if a lady from East Europe walks away with the post.
(T.P. Sreenivasan has represented India at the U.N. in New York,
Nairobi and Vienna. He was also the head of the U.N. Division in the
Ministry of External Affairs.)
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